AUSTRALIAN MACRO CYCLE
The GrowTell Macro Wheel
A premium cycle dashboard translating Australian inflation, rates, employment, growth, wages and credit into one transparent position on the economic cycle. The score is a model, not a forecast.
RECESSIONDELEVERAGINGEARLY RECOVERYRECOVERYEXPANSIONLATE EXPANSIONOVERHEATINGTIGHTENINGSLOWDOWNCONTRACTION
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GrowTell only labels the economy “Recession” when two consecutive quarters of real GDP growth are negative. Leading indicators can move the needle toward recession risk before that rule is met.
LIVE INPUTS
What moves the needle
SCORE DRIVERS
Current pressure
The cycle index combines monetary restraint, inflation, labour-market conditions, growth momentum, wages, vacancies and housing credit. Higher readings represent a later-cycle position. Recession itself is gated separately by the two-negative-GDP-quarters rule.
HISTORY
Needle movement
| Snapshot | Score | Stage |
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